Archive for Honduras
Micheletti Schools Zelaya on RealPolitik
Posted by: | CommentsI haven’t said much about the Honduran situation because, well, not much has changed. Brazil is still providing a campaign headquarters for Zelaya from their embassy in Tegucigalpa, and the Honduran government is proceeding with the elections as planned for December.
However, I read today that Micheletti will be stepping down during the elections, which is obviously merely political theater but demonstrates the huge gulf between the current government and the former tyrant-in-training Zelaya. Now the world will have to contend with Zelaya, who didn’t want to leave office and was willing to ignore the constitution, the legislative and judicial branches, and the image projected by the man who was elected to replace him, who is voluntarily stepping aside in the interests of his country. One is a narco thug willing to trample the constitution to stay in power, the other is your typical scheming politician willing to give it up in order to gain public favor.
If you’re still in doubt as to whether Zelaya was properly removed from office, read the Honduran Constitution, Article 239 (from the Latina American Herald Tribune):
“Any citizen who has already served as head of the Executive Branch cannot be President or Vice-President again. Whoever violates this law or proposes its reform, as well as those who support such violation directly or indirectly, must immediately cease in their functions and will be unable to hold any public office for a period of 10 years.”
And some commentary from the WSJ:
In a speech to be delivered late on Thursday, Mr. Micheletti is expected to say he will hand the reins of government to his council of ministers – basically, the cabinet – from Nov. 24 until his return to power on Dec. 2, according to a copy of a speech obtained by the Wall Street Journal. The president-elect is scheduled to take power in January.
In the remarks, Mr. Micheletti says his temporary absence from his post is meant to help Hondurans concentrate on the presidential elections instead of the political crisis, which erupted when the army kicked the president out of the country for allegedly wanting to extend his stay in power. Mr. Zelaya, a close ally of Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, denies the charges, and has called on Hondurans to boycott the vote.
“It’s symbolic, but the fact that Micheletti won’t be presiding over the government when elections take place will help to some extent to help get other governments to come around to recognize the election,” said Michael Shifter, an analyst at the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
While the U.S. and some Latin American countries, such as Panama, have said they will recognize the new president, other countries, such as Brazil, Argentina, and those allied with Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez have said they won’t recognize the new government because Mr. Zelaya has not been restored to power.
Recently, Mr. Micheletti and Mr. Zelaya signed an agreement that called for the Honduran Congress to vote on whether to reinstate Mr. Zelaya as president, but Mr. Zelaya pulled out of the deal a few days after it was signed. The Honduran government is expected to vote on Mr. Zelaya’s reinstatement after the election, but is widely expected to not allow him to return.
US and regional recognition of the December elections effectively brings an end to Zelaya’s antics. I assume he’ll have a nice penthouse in Havana or Caracas, but the people won this round. The more interesting question is whether this can be seen as a harbinger of future elections, and whether the leftward trend has been slowed, stopped, or reversed. My money says the pendulum is swinging back, from the US all the way south.
Honduras Should Win at the UN
Posted by: | CommentsReaders may remember that Zelaya reentered Honduras last month and established his home base at the Brazilian Embassy. Brazil has very foolishly allowed him to use their embassy as insurrection HQ. Not only does Zelaya look like a fool now but Brazilian prestige has taken a big hit both because of their de facto endorsement of Zelaya’s dangerous antics and their unwillingness to grant him asylum and be done with it.
Reuters is reporting that Honduras has filed suit against Brazil seeking damages and asked that it be expedited. This is the UN of course, so anything is possible, but Honduras should win this one hands down. Brazil has added to the circus-like atmosphere by letting Zelaya manage his pep rallies from the embassy. They should either have the courage of the Chavez/Castro regime and overtly undermine the Honduran government, or they should have the self-respect to withdraw and apologize. Regrettably, it appears the most populous nation in the region isn’t ready for prime time.
Was Zelaya Ousted Legally?
Posted by: | CommentsAccording to the US Congressional Research Service, the Honduran Congress has the power to remove the President from office. While that might be a surprise to some readers (see an extensive discussion of this issue on an earlier post), what should come as no surprise is that other leftists in the region are undermining the government of Honduras and by extension, the economy and public security.
According to Bloomberg:
This much is already clear: Hondurans now seem farther away from a safe transition to a new democratically elected leader who adheres to the country’s constitution.
Don’t expect Zelaya to regain the presidency with full powers before the national election scheduled for Nov. 29. Less than 50 percent of Hondurans support their former leader and his approval rating has tumbled, according to a CID-Gallup poll taken two days after Zelaya was ousted in late June. Hondurans are evenly split about whether he deserved to be forcibly removed from office.
Zelaya provoked his opponents by trying to bend the constitution so he could seek another term as president. He was dragged out of the presidential palace in his pajamas and flown out of the country.
Sneaking In
His ambition endures, which is why Zelaya snuck back into the country last month in advance of the national election. He had tried unsuccessfully to re-enter Honduras in the three months since he was booted out. His most recent attempt might have failed too if the Brazilians hadn’t welcomed him inside their embassy.
By opening the doors to Zelaya, Lula allowed himself and his country to be used to promote the individual aspirations of a foreign leader. Zelaya’s situation in Brazil’s embassy is illegal, according to Jorge Zaverucha, a political scientist who directs the Center for Study of Coercive Institutions at the Federal University of Pernambuco in Brazil.
Brazilian authorities claim they aren’t violating international law because they didn’t welcome Zelaya as an exile. They have refused to define his current political status by arguing they are simply offering him “humanitarian shelter.”
The 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations doesn’t say that a diplomatic mission should take in a legally deposed president and let him use the shelter as his political campaign headquarters.
Taking Advantage
More important, Article 41 of the convention states that anyone enjoying the same privileges and immunity as Zelaya in Brazil’s embassy has “a duty not to interfere in the internal affairs” of the host country.
A leader who disrespected his own country’s constitution can’t be expected to follow international rules of conduct.
Protected by the inviolability of the Brazilian embassy, which is considered foreign soil in Honduran territory, Zelaya has given speeches to his followers from inside the mission, made political phone calls, held numerous media interviews and even incited a rebellion against the de facto government.
The article goes on to talk about how Michelleti et al have also made mistakes, something the international media has made sure is known around the world.
I know some of you are rolling your eyes and wondering what this has to do with Guate. Well, for starters, Honduras is next door; it’s kind of like Arizona being concerned with what happens in New Mexico. More importantly, these revolutionary developments are part of a trend in the region that expats and future expats should know about. If a coup is going to ruin your weekend, you best think twice about moving.
To the rest of you: What do you think, is Brazil doing the right thing by letting Zelaya use it’s embassy to foment instability and prolong the crisis?
El Blogador Toughing It in Mexico
Posted by: | CommentsEl Blogador has been delighting readers with his travel blogging from Playa del Carmen and other locations in Mexico.
Between Lattes and fine dining he managed to get in a little slap at yours truly for making such a big deal of the Chavez puppet who now resides at the Brazilian embassy.
These eedjits made their move against Zelaya when the grand total of his ‘treason’ against the Hounduran constitution was a no-car zone in Tegucigalpa and a non-binding consultation about a possible two-term presidency…which would have reached its conclusions AFTER an election he would no longer be eligible to stand in under the existing rules.
What’s that old Churchill saying about feeding the alligator? Of course, IMHO Hitler wasn’t the true enemy anyway, if we had just followed Patton’s advice (defeat the Soviets while we were already in Europe), we could have saved about 60,000,000 lives and a few trillion dollars. But that’s another story altogether.
Michelleti et al need only to have looked to Havana and Caracas to see the future that awaited them if they embraced the false comfort of appeasement towards would-be tyrants. When a man has a gun pointed at your head you don’t need to wait for him to shoot to understand his intentions.
What do you think? Should the Hondurans follow the advice of El Blogador and his mate Neville, or is Churchill a better role model? (Don’t worry James, I haven’t forgotten your request!)
Zelaya Is Back…My Money Is On Civil War
Posted by: | CommentsThings have been quiet in Honduras, but according to Reuters Zelaya has managed to re-enter the country and take refuge at the Brazilian embassy.
Keep in mind that Zelaya was removed from office by the military at the instruction of the legislative branch and the judicial branch of government. I know there has been some discussion about the extra-constitutional nature of these actions, but it reminds me of the impeachment of Bill Clinton; his defenders said it was really about ‘lying about sex’ and that the impeachment was unconstitutional. Neither was true but it sounded good.
Zelaya never got much real traction from international groups because Presidential elections are scheduled for November so we’re only talking about a few months. True, with help from Chavez, Zelaya could kill off much of the opposition (aka everyone in the government except for Zelaya), in those remaining months, but what are the odds Zelaya would give up power to his successor come January?
I suspect Zelaya’s ties to narcotraffickers and the realization that a strongman like him would be unlikely to give up power voluntarily have led most nations to quietly back away from him, which left him desperate and willing to take this bizarre step. All he can hope to do now is cause chaos in the capital, gambling the bloodshed will bring the government down. What’s a few lives to a ‘revolutionary’ anyway?
If you’re planning a trip to Tegucigalpa I might reschedule.
P.S. For those of you who always complain that I don’t cite local press for these things, I’ll have you know I did go check Nuestro Diario only to find ZERO mention of the developments.
Update: Prensa Libre now has a mention of the developments.
Tipping Point in Tegucigalpa
Posted by: | CommentsThe Wife has been complaining that I write far too often on things that “no one cares about and aren’t even funny”, so I’ve been trying to stick with things I think readers will enjoy more. That having been said, things in Honduras have gotten worse and your emails indicate you want a local, or at least different, perspective than what you get from the Marxist-loving media.
You may recall Zelaya was deposed and rallied Central American Presidents and the media to his side. He
Which one looks like the dictator, and which like a guy scared for his job?
took a little hit when it leaked that he was basically a narcotrafficker. However, he and Chavez quickly changed strategies and he’s been gaining ground by publicly calling for a revolution in the streets. Pretty bold of Colom, by the way, to stand next to a guy who was removed from office with the support of the Supreme Court, Congress and military, and who is now openly calling for bloodshed in a neighboring country. I guess he may be worried he’ll be doing the same from Tegucigalpa one day.
In a shrewd move, the interim President of Honduras, Michelleti, has offered to step down and have early elections, but won’t if Zelaya returns. This is a well-aimed shot, getting to the core of the personality/populist cult angle that Zelaya is trying to employ, and is so common in the region (a la Ortega, Castro, Chavez, etc.) It’s all Latino flavors of Stalin, Mao andl- ISung, if you know your history. Micheletti had already accepted the offer of mediation, so he’s done all the right things.
So now we have reports that Marxist elements are infiltrating Honduras through neighboring countries to foment instability. That’s textbook marxist strategy-import subversive elements to incite sympathizers (there’s no revolution like one you can export, after all), threaten law-abiding citizens, and create chaos.
Pictures of rioting, bloodied young protestors, property on fire and menacing-looking soldiers in combat gear will be fed to favorable media outfits for publication, along with anecdotes about how 110% of Hondurans are praying rosaries around the clock, begging the Madonna to return personally with Zelaya at her side. He’s the new Juan Diego, you know. Someone better tell the senior-most cleric in the region who begged Zelaya not to return. Pretty amazing considering how pathetically devoted to the left the Catholic Church is here.
It’s a lot easier to return in this enviornment promising to restore peace, than one in which the entire government and the overwhelming majority of citizens oppose your return. Naturally, once Zelaya is back the violence suddenly ends, like the storm ending at Christ’s command.
My guess is the US is hands-off on all this, desperate as Obama is to show the world how different he is from every other American President who wanted to police his back yard. (We haven’t had too many Presidents born in Kenya, after all…hehe). So it’s the Honduran people against the international media and regional marxist leaders. The media pressure, pitiful economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure and attempted return by Zelaya all failed, so now they have to up the ante. I would expect violence to increase sharply against Zelaya opponents and random people on the street, you know, just to show how bad things are getting without their beloved leader governing.
I also expect the Zelaya supporters to take out some of their own (as they did at the airport when Zelaya attempted to return), and employ the same strategy I suspect was used against Colom (which I detailed here), viz., kill someone whose death will reflect badly on your enemy and ensnare them in allegations and investigations. Expect media reports of corruption allegations against Michelleti, senior military and other governmental leaders in an effort to discredit them. I’ve already had one blogger tell me privately Michelleti just wanted Zelaya’s cut on the narco shipments.
What do you expect? Anyone on the ground in Honduras who can comment?
Update on Honduras, via Venezuela
Posted by: | CommentsRead the whole article by Robert Amsterdam, but here’s a preview:
First, the obvious irony of Chávez making a miscalculated political move on the Honduras crisis. One Venezuelan pollster told the Washington Post on July 1st that the Honduran crisis is an ideal political opportunity for Chávez “because he’s not defending a tyrant; he’s defending an elected president who was overthrown. It’s showtime for the showman.” That’s certainly been the case, as the Venezuelan president has seized far more airtime and headlines than any other voice including Zelaya himself.
The irony of having one of Latin America’s most polarizing authoritarians come out singing the praises of democracy and constitutional law in another country has not lost upon observers (some in the blogosphere even mused that soon Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe would be flown in to make some speeches).
There is abundant and rich material for satire here. We are talking about a leader whose foreign policy highlights have involved a secret suitcase of $800,000 laundered PDVSA cash (the cover up of which was caught on an FBI wiretap), alleged money laundering for Colombia’s FARC rebels found on a captured laptop, and the unique title of being the only country in the world willing to invite the genocidal leader of the Sudan for a red carpet state visit.
In terms of democratic credentials, the Chávez has distorted the constitution to allow for endless consecutive terms, imposed two new laws to handpick surrogates to rule over the democratically elected mayors and governors of the opposition, and sought to imprison his opponents under false charges. In his free time, Chávez is seeking to close down the government critical television station Globovisión. The end result of this instrumentalization of the democratic process to destroy democratic institutions has been a significant decline in 4 out of 6 categories of the Worldwide Governance Indicators recently published by the World Bank.
Did Zelaya Get His Hand Caught in the Coke Jar?
Posted by: | CommentsI heard this a few days ago but wanted to wait for a public source before mentioning it on the blog. The Hispanic American Center for Economic Research is reporting that Zelaya was in league with Chavez to move narcotics through Central America. If you’re a Obama disciple and outraged that his criticism of Zelaya’s ouster has been somewhat muted, maybe you can give the poor God-Man a break now.
An excerpt from the article:
Foreign Minister Enrique Ortez dropped a bombshell last week when he said Zelaya, the president who was thrown out by a constitutional process June 28 after defying the law, had a little side business with the Caracas caudillo allowing cocaine to roll into Honduras from Venezuela before heading to the U.S.
“Every night, three or four Venezuelan-registered planes land without the permission of appropriate authorities and bring thousands of pounds . . . and packages of money that are the fruit of drug trafficking,” Ortez told CNN En Espanol. “We have proof of all of this. Neighboring governments have it. The DEA has it.”
The reality is that the US is still the 900lb gorilla in this neck of the woods, despite the best efforts of Iran, Russia and China. I wouldn’t go so far as to say Washington sanctioned the ouster of Zelaya (that’s just so, like, you know, 1980’s), but may have trotted out the old, “I’m sorry, did you say something?”, reply. It will be fun watching all those OAS Presidents run for cover. Defenders of the ‘rule of law’ and ‘democracy’ indeed. Hehe.
No wonder Canada and the US have been so ‘prudent’ about forcing Zelaya’s return.
On another note, this report indicates Guatemala lost $30 million USD by shutting down the border with Honduras for 48 hours. Guatemalan kids are going hungry and politicians are playing ten-figure border games. Real smart…
Update: MiMundo has posted a video from Sunday which presumably shows the Honduran military firing into the crowd of ‘peaceful’ demonstrators who had gathered to welcome Zelaya home (that didn’t happen). What I see is a mob tearing down a fence, throwing rocks and debris and taunting the soliders. You then see the military fire tear gas into the crowd, and fire their weapons into the dirt while retreating from the mob (and helping some civilians out of harm’s way). Some of these expended shells are paraded around as evidence later. Apparently a couple of people went to the hospital. Watch it for yourself.
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