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Remember the murder of the attorney a few months back that put Colom in the hot seat?  Well, nine people have been arrested:

Castresana announced the arrest of former National Civil Police (PNC) officer William Gilberto Santos, allegedly the head of an organised crime band, PNC officer Mario Luis Paz, and former soldier Edwin Idelmo López. The three are accused of directly participating in Rosenberg’s murder.

Four other men – Samuel Girón, José Armando Ruano, Balmore Guzmán and Lucas José Santiago López – face charges as accomplices.

Alberto Santos, the brother of the criminal band’s leader, and PNC officer Carlos Aragón were arrested later.

According to the information provided by CICIG, the suspects were members of an organised crime group involved in murders, kidnappings, drug trafficking and extortion.

“We have no witnesses, but we have overwhelming scientific evidence,” said the head of CICIG, a United Nations-sponsored body that began to operate in January 2008 with the aim of restoring trust in institutions like the corruption-riddled police and justice system by assisting the prosecution service, Supreme Court and police in investigating criminal activities of illegal, armed security groups and organised crime.

Castresana showed reporters a video recording in which a black car chased Rosenberg down on his bicycle.

PrensaLibre has also posted a video of the announcement.  They’ve chosen not to allow people like me to embed the video, so you’ll have to go to YouTube to watch it.

Presumably this gang does not work for free and doesn’t just randomly kill attorneys who happened to have previously alleged Colom was corrupt, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

President Colom is less than a year into his term but like Obama his popularity is not what it once was.  As a result I thought I would commission a new poll, one looking out to the next Presidential elections.  You can find that in the column to the right, below the ads for my friends.

Whether you’re a US citizen, a Guatemalan citizen or not registered, it doesn’t matter.  However, for you Democrats, one little wrinkle:  in this election you can only vote once.

The Wife has been complaining that I write far too often on things that “no one cares about and aren’t even funny”, so I’ve been trying to stick with things I think readers will enjoy more.  That having been said, things in Honduras have gotten worse and your emails indicate you want a local, or at least different, perspective than what you get from the Marxist-loving media.

You may recall Zelaya was deposed and rallied Central American Presidents and the media to his side.  He

Which one looks like the dictator, and which like a guy scared for his job?

Which one looks like the dictator, and which like a guy scared for his job?

took a little hit when it leaked that he was basically a narcotrafficker.  However, he and Chavez quickly changed strategies and he’s been gaining ground by publicly calling for a revolution in the streets.  Pretty bold of Colom, by the way, to stand next to a guy who was removed from office with the support of the Supreme Court, Congress and military, and who is now openly calling for bloodshed in a neighboring country.  I guess he may be worried he’ll be doing the same from Tegucigalpa one day.

In a shrewd move, the interim President of Honduras, Michelleti, has offered to step down and have early elections, but won’t if Zelaya returns.  This is a well-aimed shot, getting to the core of the personality/populist cult angle that Zelaya is trying to employ, and is so common in the region (a la Ortega, Castro, Chavez, etc.)  It’s all Latino flavors of Stalin, Mao andl- ISung, if you know your history.  Micheletti had already accepted the offer of mediation, so he’s done all the right things.

So now we have reports that Marxist elements are infiltrating Honduras through neighboring countries to foment instability.  That’s textbook marxist strategy-import subversive elements to incite sympathizers (there’s no revolution like one you can export, after all), threaten law-abiding citizens, and create chaos.

Pictures of rioting, bloodied young protestors, property on fire and menacing-looking soldiers in combat gear will be fed to favorable media outfits for publication, along with anecdotes about how 110% of Hondurans are praying rosaries around the clock, begging the Madonna to return personally with Zelaya at her side.  He’s the new Juan Diego, you know.  Someone better tell the senior-most cleric in the region who begged Zelaya not to return.  Pretty amazing considering how pathetically devoted to the left the Catholic Church is here.

It’s a lot easier to return in this enviornment promising to restore peace, than one in which the entire government and the overwhelming majority of citizens oppose your return.  Naturally, once Zelaya is back the violence suddenly ends, like the storm ending at Christ’s command.

My guess is the US is hands-off on all this, desperate as Obama is to show the world how different he is from every other American President who wanted to police his back yard.  (We haven’t had too many Presidents born in Kenya, after all…hehe).  So it’s the Honduran people against the international media and regional marxist leaders.  The media pressure, pitiful economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure and attempted return by Zelaya all failed, so now they have to up the ante.  I would expect violence to increase sharply against Zelaya opponents and random people on the street, you know, just to show how bad things are getting without their beloved leader governing.

I also expect the Zelaya supporters to take out some of their own (as they did at the airport when Zelaya attempted to return), and employ the same strategy I suspect was used against Colom (which I detailed here), viz., kill someone whose death will reflect badly on your enemy and ensnare them in allegations and investigations.  Expect media reports of corruption allegations against Michelleti, senior military and other governmental leaders in an effort to discredit them. I’ve already had one blogger tell me privately Michelleti just wanted Zelaya’s cut on the narco shipments.

What do you expect?  Anyone on the ground in Honduras who can comment?

Things are certainly getting interesting here in Central America.  My Twitter account has gotten overwhelmed with claims that the Guatemalan government is blocking access to Wordpress.com, the popular blog-hosting site.  Although my platform is Wordpress, I host it on my own server, so I’ve only experienced minor issues the last few days and didn’t make the connection until I got, oh, about 7200 msgs on Twitter.

What no one else seems to have observed is that the undersea cables that support the network here all come from the US, and run through Honduras before arriving here.  Readers may recall there have been some political developments in Tegucigalpa, (that’s the capital of Honduras), that may very well have led to the ‘outage’.

The Guatemaltecos naturally think it is their own government out to stifle their freedom to call for a run on the state bank and other such things, but I suspect it has a lot more to do with what’s happening next door.  If I were Colom I think I’d keep my top Generals close by, maybe even go to Atitlan for a few days.

Stay tuned.

As far as I can tell, there haven’t been many developments in the case involving the murdered lawyer and his videos claiming the President is responsible.  As I mentioned yesterday, there have been some developments as it regards a Twitter user’s comments and his subsequent arrest.

The Twitter user was arrested under a law which prohibits inciting financial panic.  According to my local sources, this legislation was passed after coordinated rumor mongering led to a run on targeted banks.  It seems to me that if a government is a continual victim of these kinds of efforts to create panic and crisis in the financial markets, it is prudent to implement restraints which threaten consequences for this kind of ‘organized crime’.

Yes, I know that ‘freedom of speech’ is the First Commandment of Secularists everywhere, and if anyone wants to get patriotic and righteous let me throw down first:  I volunteered for the US military at a time when we were fighting unpopular low-intensity conflicts around the world and served under a President who I strongly opposed.  I think I’ve earned the right to voice my opinion about the just exercise of liberty.

With power and rights comes responsibility.  You may have the right to free speech, but that doesn’t mean you can yell ‘fire’ in a crowded theater.   In civilized societies, individual rights must be weighed against the common good.  This is how in the US we protect the freedom of speech but cities can require organizers to get permits before staging huge protests.  This brings us to the Twitter case, which has been well documented (in English) here.

Opinions on the twitter arrest seem to me to be rather unified, and my friend Rudy shares those sentiments.  However, this train of thought seems to ignore the fact that the law targeted this very kind of behavior, and with good reason.  Actions have consequences, as the original twitter comment itself acknowledges; jeanfer would not have urged followers to create a run on the bank if he did not think that a) it was possible and b) it would cause trouble for the bank.

Opponents would seem to believe that the law is unjust, and therefore jeanfer should not have been arrested.  However, the means for protesting an unjust law are made available through civil and political means, including public demonstrations.  It doesn’t seem justified to me to break the law in the name of demonstrating against it; this only invites criminal consequences.  In fact, jeanfer doesn’t imply this in his tweets, he merely calls for a run on the bank, tantamount to rebellion in the case of a state-owned entity.

On the other hand, one may violate the law to serve a political end, but this should be subordinated to a higher good.  Peaceful civil unrest in India and South Africa decades ago are examples of this, but these generally involved the breaking of some minor civil law to draw attention to a grave, pervasive injustice, rather than the specific targeting of financial instability for a government institution (BanRural is state controlled).

If a man unintentionally violates a law, he remains guilty of that law but may still have some culpability.  (Ignorantia legis neminem excusat).  By all appearances, jeanfer knew precisely what he was doing and the likely consequences and did it anyway.  Therefore the offense is greater, and he cannot reasonably expect leniency.  After all, the law intends to prevent precisely what he was trying to do, and further, he was trying to do it during a time of national crisis with the goal of destabilizing the government.

Put another way, by his actions he has in fact confirmed what the President has claimed in his own defense; the murder of the attorney is part of a pattern of events designed to destabilize the government (either his own administration or the current democratic government).  Colom need only point to the actions of the Twitter users now as proof.  Under the circumstances, greater enforcement of the law now seems likely.

I would admit that the entire episode casts Guatemala in a very bad light.  It’s not often that a democratically-elected President is accused of murdering anyone, and Guatemalans must feel shame that their country is in the headlines for this reason.  The arrest of the Twitter user will almost certainly lead to coverage in mainstream media outlets that casts the country in the light of a backwards, banana republic, also something which must be deeply hurtful to a people with a long history of suffering.

However, political activists must recognize and accept the likely consequences of their actions, even when the law they are breaking seems to them unjust.  I have friends who have gone to jail and been charged with violations of the RICO Acts because they insisted on sitting down on the sidewalk in front of an abortion clinic.  Are the use of these laws against conservative political activists (who are comprised mostly of old church women and Priests with Rosaries) unjust, onerous and used as political revenge?  Of course.  But the activists break the law anyway knowing the consequences, and they should be prepared to accept them.

The twitter users comments were not simply an attack on the person of Alvaro Colom, they were an intentional, targeted effort to destabilize a financial system, specifically, the banking arm of the government.  Rather than seeming (to me, anyway), as a patriot and martyr, it just looks foolish.  If he were arrested for say, burning Colom in effigy in front of the Presidential palace, perhaps his fate would be different.

Keep in mind, the region is reeling from the US economic crisis and the Mexican Swine Flu.  Guatemala in particular is weighed down by a costly but ineffective fight against the narco-traffickers, decades of conflict and a history of weak political leaders and widespread corruption.  A prominent Twitter user advocating a run on the central bank must be considered in light of these circumstances.  It is a very different thing than for an obscure US Congressman advocating abolishing the Federal Reserve or a southern Governor advocating secession.  International opinion is important when it comes to tourism, exports and international investment.  Recent developments certainly don’t help.

I hope every Guatemalan Twitter user donates to a fund to bail jeanfer out.  In fact, I suggest setting up an account for this purpose at BanRural and recommend that every donation be in the amount of 64Q, drawing attention to Decree 64, the law he is accused of breaking.  The irony will play well in the press and demonstrate the savvy and civility of political dissenters.

The BBC is reporting that a Guatemalan lawyer who was killed on Sunday made a video before his death alleging that he might be assassinated and that if he was, it would be the work of President Colom.

A videotape recorded by the lawyer, Rodrigo Rosenberg, prior to his death claims that Mr Colom would be responsible for his murder.

Mr Rosenberg alleges that he would have been killed because of his links to a client, a prominent businessman, who was killed in March with his daughter.

The 47-year-old lawyer was shot dead on Sunday in Guatemala City.

In the video distributed to Guatemala’s media, Mr Rosenberg is seen seated at a desk and speaking into a microphone.

Mr Rosenberg says: “If you are watching this message, it is because I was assassinated by President Alvaro Colom with help from Gustavo Alejos.”

This should be alarming to anyone who follows Guatemala.  It’s not very often that someone predicts their own death and blames it on a democratically elected President.  On the other hand, this is exactly the kind of political stunt that Latin American politics has produced in the past.  Men who have enemies often have them across partisan and ideological lines, and recording a video like this and blaming it on someone you hate/fear is a powerful way to hang a millstone around their neck.

I don’t have any background on the men involved, so I would appreciate input from readers.

UpdateThe Miami Herald has an article on this, along with the videos, which I’ll embed below.

Update 2:  I’m following this story on other blogs, news sites and on twitter, and what surprises me is that public sentiment appears to be unanimous against Colom on this matter.  I’ve raised the question, “Couldn’t Colom’s adversaries have killed the lawyer knowing how it would reflect on Colom?”  No one seems interested in taking this question up for dialogue.  Of course, maybe nobody cares what an ignorant Gringo thinks of the matter.  On the other hand, it seems as equally likely from well-connected folks I’ve talked to that the story could be true; both the lawyer who was killed and his former clients (also killed) had impeccable reputations.  Stay tuned.

H/T:  Israel Meneses

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