Archive for Honduras
Honduras Should Win at the UN
Posted by: | CommentsReaders may remember that Zelaya reentered Honduras last month and established his home base at the Brazilian Embassy. Brazil has very foolishly allowed him to use their embassy as insurrection HQ. Not only does Zelaya look like a fool now but Brazilian prestige has taken a big hit both because of their de facto endorsement of Zelaya’s dangerous antics and their unwillingness to grant him asylum and be done with it.
Reuters is reporting that Honduras has filed suit against Brazil seeking damages and asked that it be expedited. This is the UN of course, so anything is possible, but Honduras should win this one hands down. Brazil has added to the circus-like atmosphere by letting Zelaya manage his pep rallies from the embassy. They should either have the courage of the Chavez/Castro regime and overtly undermine the Honduran government, or they should have the self-respect to withdraw and apologize. Regrettably, it appears the most populous nation in the region isn’t ready for prime time.
Was Zelaya Ousted Legally?
Posted by: | CommentsAccording to the US Congressional Research Service, the Honduran Congress has the power to remove the President from office. While that might be a surprise to some readers (see an extensive discussion of this issue on an earlier post), what should come as no surprise is that other leftists in the region are undermining the government of Honduras and by extension, the economy and public security.
According to Bloomberg:
This much is already clear: Hondurans now seem farther away from a safe transition to a new democratically elected leader who adheres to the country’s constitution.
Don’t expect Zelaya to regain the presidency with full powers before the national election scheduled for Nov. 29. Less than 50 percent of Hondurans support their former leader and his approval rating has tumbled, according to a CID-Gallup poll taken two days after Zelaya was ousted in late June. Hondurans are evenly split about whether he deserved to be forcibly removed from office.
Zelaya provoked his opponents by trying to bend the constitution so he could seek another term as president. He was dragged out of the presidential palace in his pajamas and flown out of the country.
Sneaking In
His ambition endures, which is why Zelaya snuck back into the country last month in advance of the national election. He had tried unsuccessfully to re-enter Honduras in the three months since he was booted out. His most recent attempt might have failed too if the Brazilians hadn’t welcomed him inside their embassy.
By opening the doors to Zelaya, Lula allowed himself and his country to be used to promote the individual aspirations of a foreign leader. Zelaya’s situation in Brazil’s embassy is illegal, according to Jorge Zaverucha, a political scientist who directs the Center for Study of Coercive Institutions at the Federal University of Pernambuco in Brazil.
Brazilian authorities claim they aren’t violating international law because they didn’t welcome Zelaya as an exile. They have refused to define his current political status by arguing they are simply offering him “humanitarian shelter.”
The 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations doesn’t say that a diplomatic mission should take in a legally deposed president and let him use the shelter as his political campaign headquarters.
Taking Advantage
More important, Article 41 of the convention states that anyone enjoying the same privileges and immunity as Zelaya in Brazil’s embassy has “a duty not to interfere in the internal affairs” of the host country.
A leader who disrespected his own country’s constitution can’t be expected to follow international rules of conduct.
Protected by the inviolability of the Brazilian embassy, which is considered foreign soil in Honduran territory, Zelaya has given speeches to his followers from inside the mission, made political phone calls, held numerous media interviews and even incited a rebellion against the de facto government.
The article goes on to talk about how Michelleti et al have also made mistakes, something the international media has made sure is known around the world.
I know some of you are rolling your eyes and wondering what this has to do with Guate. Well, for starters, Honduras is next door; it’s kind of like Arizona being concerned with what happens in New Mexico. More importantly, these revolutionary developments are part of a trend in the region that expats and future expats should know about. If a coup is going to ruin your weekend, you best think twice about moving.
To the rest of you: What do you think, is Brazil doing the right thing by letting Zelaya use it’s embassy to foment instability and prolong the crisis?
El Blogador Toughing It in Mexico
Posted by: | CommentsEl Blogador has been delighting readers with his travel blogging from Playa del Carmen and other locations in Mexico.
Between Lattes and fine dining he managed to get in a little slap at yours truly for making such a big deal of the Chavez puppet who now resides at the Brazilian embassy.
These eedjits made their move against Zelaya when the grand total of his ‘treason’ against the Hounduran constitution was a no-car zone in Tegucigalpa and a non-binding consultation about a possible two-term presidency…which would have reached its conclusions AFTER an election he would no longer be eligible to stand in under the existing rules.
What’s that old Churchill saying about feeding the alligator? Of course, IMHO Hitler wasn’t the true enemy anyway, if we had just followed Patton’s advice (defeat the Soviets while we were already in Europe), we could have saved about 60,000,000 lives and a few trillion dollars. But that’s another story altogether.
Michelleti et al need only to have looked to Havana and Caracas to see the future that awaited them if they embraced the false comfort of appeasement towards would-be tyrants. When a man has a gun pointed at your head you don’t need to wait for him to shoot to understand his intentions.
What do you think? Should the Hondurans follow the advice of El Blogador and his mate Neville, or is Churchill a better role model? (Don’t worry James, I haven’t forgotten your request!)
Zelaya Is Back…My Money Is On Civil War
Posted by: | CommentsThings have been quiet in Honduras, but according to Reuters Zelaya has managed to re-enter the country and take refuge at the Brazilian embassy.
Keep in mind that Zelaya was removed from office by the military at the instruction of the legislative branch and the judicial branch of government. I know there has been some discussion about the extra-constitutional nature of these actions, but it reminds me of the impeachment of Bill Clinton; his defenders said it was really about ‘lying about sex’ and that the impeachment was unconstitutional. Neither was true but it sounded good.
Zelaya never got much real traction from international groups because Presidential elections are scheduled for November so we’re only talking about a few months. True, with help from Chavez, Zelaya could kill off much of the opposition (aka everyone in the government except for Zelaya), in those remaining months, but what are the odds Zelaya would give up power to his successor come January?
I suspect Zelaya’s ties to narcotraffickers and the realization that a strongman like him would be unlikely to give up power voluntarily have led most nations to quietly back away from him, which left him desperate and willing to take this bizarre step. All he can hope to do now is cause chaos in the capital, gambling the bloodshed will bring the government down. What’s a few lives to a ‘revolutionary’ anyway?
If you’re planning a trip to Tegucigalpa I might reschedule.
P.S. For those of you who always complain that I don’t cite local press for these things, I’ll have you know I did go check Nuestro Diario only to find ZERO mention of the developments.
Update: Prensa Libre now has a mention of the developments.
Tipping Point in Tegucigalpa
Posted by: | CommentsThe Wife has been complaining that I write far too often on things that “no one cares about and aren’t even funny”, so I’ve been trying to stick with things I think readers will enjoy more. That having been said, things in Honduras have gotten worse and your emails indicate you want a local, or at least different, perspective than what you get from the Marxist-loving media.
You may recall Zelaya was deposed and rallied Central American Presidents and the media to his side. He

Which one looks like the dictator, and which like a guy scared for his job?
took a little hit when it leaked that he was basically a narcotrafficker. However, he and Chavez quickly changed strategies and he’s been gaining ground by publicly calling for a revolution in the streets. Pretty bold of Colom, by the way, to stand next to a guy who was removed from office with the support of the Supreme Court, Congress and military, and who is now openly calling for bloodshed in a neighboring country. I guess he may be worried he’ll be doing the same from Tegucigalpa one day.
In a shrewd move, the interim President of Honduras, Michelleti, has offered to step down and have early elections, but won’t if Zelaya returns. This is a well-aimed shot, getting to the core of the personality/populist cult angle that Zelaya is trying to employ, and is so common in the region (a la Ortega, Castro, Chavez, etc.) It’s all Latino flavors of Stalin, Mao andl- ISung, if you know your history. Micheletti had already accepted the offer of mediation, so he’s done all the right things.
So now we have reports that Marxist elements are infiltrating Honduras through neighboring countries to foment instability. That’s textbook marxist strategy-import subversive elements to incite sympathizers (there’s no revolution like one you can export, after all), threaten law-abiding citizens, and create chaos.
Pictures of rioting, bloodied young protestors, property on fire and menacing-looking soldiers in combat gear will be fed to favorable media outfits for publication, along with anecdotes about how 110% of Hondurans are praying rosaries around the clock, begging the Madonna to return personally with Zelaya at her side. He’s the new Juan Diego, you know. Someone better tell the senior-most cleric in the region who begged Zelaya not to return. Pretty amazing considering how pathetically devoted to the left the Catholic Church is here.
It’s a lot easier to return in this enviornment promising to restore peace, than one in which the entire government and the overwhelming majority of citizens oppose your return. Naturally, once Zelaya is back the violence suddenly ends, like the storm ending at Christ’s command.
My guess is the US is hands-off on all this, desperate as Obama is to show the world how different he is from every other American President who wanted to police his back yard. (We haven’t had too many Presidents born in Kenya, after all…hehe). So it’s the Honduran people against the international media and regional marxist leaders. The media pressure, pitiful economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure and attempted return by Zelaya all failed, so now they have to up the ante. I would expect violence to increase sharply against Zelaya opponents and random people on the street, you know, just to show how bad things are getting without their beloved leader governing.
I also expect the Zelaya supporters to take out some of their own (as they did at the airport when Zelaya attempted to return), and employ the same strategy I suspect was used against Colom (which I detailed here), viz., kill someone whose death will reflect badly on your enemy and ensnare them in allegations and investigations. Expect media reports of corruption allegations against Michelleti, senior military and other governmental leaders in an effort to discredit them. I’ve already had one blogger tell me privately Michelleti just wanted Zelaya’s cut on the narco shipments.
What do you expect? Anyone on the ground in Honduras who can comment?
Did Zelaya Get His Hand Caught in the Coke Jar?
Posted by: | CommentsI heard this a few days ago but wanted to wait for a public source before mentioning it on the blog. The Hispanic American Center for Economic Research is reporting that Zelaya was in league with Chavez to move narcotics through Central America. If you’re a Obama disciple and outraged that his criticism of Zelaya’s ouster has been somewhat muted, maybe you can give the poor God-Man a break now.
An excerpt from the article:
Foreign Minister Enrique Ortez dropped a bombshell last week when he said Zelaya, the president who was thrown out by a constitutional process June 28 after defying the law, had a little side business with the Caracas caudillo allowing cocaine to roll into Honduras from Venezuela before heading to the U.S.
“Every night, three or four Venezuelan-registered planes land without the permission of appropriate authorities and bring thousands of pounds . . . and packages of money that are the fruit of drug trafficking,” Ortez told CNN En Espanol. “We have proof of all of this. Neighboring governments have it. The DEA has it.”
The reality is that the US is still the 900lb gorilla in this neck of the woods, despite the best efforts of Iran, Russia and China. I wouldn’t go so far as to say Washington sanctioned the ouster of Zelaya (that’s just so, like, you know, 1980’s), but may have trotted out the old, “I’m sorry, did you say something?”, reply. It will be fun watching all those OAS Presidents run for cover. Defenders of the ‘rule of law’ and ‘democracy’ indeed. Hehe.
No wonder Canada and the US have been so ‘prudent’ about forcing Zelaya’s return.
On another note, this report indicates Guatemala lost $30 million USD by shutting down the border with Honduras for 48 hours. Guatemalan kids are going hungry and politicians are playing ten-figure border games. Real smart…
Update: MiMundo has posted a video from Sunday which presumably shows the Honduran military firing into the crowd of ‘peaceful’ demonstrators who had gathered to welcome Zelaya home (that didn’t happen). What I see is a mob tearing down a fence, throwing rocks and debris and taunting the soliders. You then see the military fire tear gas into the crowd, and fire their weapons into the dirt while retreating from the mob (and helping some civilians out of harm’s way). Some of these expended shells are paraded around as evidence later. Apparently a couple of people went to the hospital. Watch it for yourself.
Honduras at the Tipping Point?
Posted by: | CommentsSeveral Guatemalans I spoke to over the weekend were very concerned about the situation next door, and so I thought I would continue to post updates for the benefit of readers.
Yesterday former President Zelaya attempted to return to power in Honduras, but fortunately his aircraft was not permitted to land. This was a good choice, because once on the ground he could coordinate the revolution that Raul Castro and Hugo Chavez are pushing for. I’m beginning to wonder if the Honduran government didn’t know exactly what it was doing when it deported him, instead of putting him in jail as others had suggested; instead of being an ousted former President, he’d be a martyr.
Anyway, Ms. O’Grady summarizes the situation in an article publshed today, and it is so closely aligned to my own views on the matter I’m just going to quote from her article.
Hondurans have good cause for calling on divine intervention: Reason has gone AWOL in places like Turtle Bay and Foggy Bottom. Ruling the debate on Mr. Zelaya’s behavior is Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chávez, who is now the reigning international authority on “democracy.”
Mr. Chávez is demanding that Mr. Zelaya be reinstated and is even threatening to overthrow the new Honduran president, Roberto Micheletti. He’s leading the charge from the Organization of American States (OAS). The United Nations and the Obama administration are falling in line.
Is this insane? You bet. We have fallen through the looking glass and it’s time to review how hemispheric relations came to such a sad state.
The story begins in 2004, when Mr. Chávez was still an aspiring despot and the U.S. pursued a policy of appeasement toward him. Not surprisingly, that only heightened his appetite for power.
Mr. Chávez had already rewritten the Venezuelan Constitution, taken over the judiciary and the national electoral council (CNE), militarized the government, and staked out an aggressive, anti-American foreign policy promising to spread his revolution around the hemisphere.
Many Venezuelans were alarmed, and the opposition had labored to collect signatures for a presidential recall referendum permitted under the constitution. As voting day drew near, Mr. Chávez behaved as if he knew his days were numbered. The European Union refused to send an observer team, citing lack of transparency. The OAS did send observers, and in the months and weeks ahead of the vote mission chief Fernando Jaramillo complained bitterly about the state’s intimidation tactics against the population. Mr. Chávez gave OAS Secretary General César Gaviria an ultimatum: Either get Mr. Jaramillo out of the country or the referendum would be quashed. Mr. Chávez was appeased. Mr. Jaramillo was withdrawn.
The Carter Center was also invited to “observe,” and former President Jimmy Carter was welcomed warmly by Mr. Chávez upon his arrival in Venezuela.
A key problem, beyond the corrupted voter rolls and government intimidation, was that Mr. Chávez did not allow an audit of his electronic voting machines. Exit polls showed him losing the vote decisively. But in the middle of the night, the minority members of the CNE were kicked out of the election command center. Shortly thereafter, Mr. Chávez claimed victory. There was never a credible audit of the paper ballots against the tallies in the voting machines.
Mr. Carter’s approval notwithstanding, the proper U.S. and OAS response was obvious: The process had been shrouded in state secrets and therefore it was impossible to endorse or reject the results. Venezuelan patriots begged for help from the outside world. Instead, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere, Roger Noriega, and the OAS blessed the charade.
There was never any explanation for the blind endorsement, but behind the scenes there were claims that Mr. Chávez threatened to call his militia to the streets and spill blood. The oil fields were to be burned. To this day, the opposition contends that the U.S. and Mr. Gaviria made a cold calculation that caving in to Mr. Chávez would avoid violence.
Predictably, Washington’s endorsement of the flawed electoral process was a green light. Mr. Chávez grew more aggressive, emboldened by his “legitimate” status. He set about using his oil money to destabilize the Bolivian and Ecuadorean democracies and to help Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega and Argentina’s Cristina Kirchner get elected. Soviet-backed Fidel Castro was able to intimidate his neighbors in the 1960s and ’70s, and Mr. Chávez has done the same thing in the new millennium. This has given him vast power at the OAS.
Hondurans had the courage to push back. Now Chávez-supported agitators are trying to stir up violence. Yesterday afternoon airline service was suspended in Tegucigalpa when Mr. Zelaya tried to return to the country and his plane was not permitted to land. There were reports of violence between his backers and troops.
This is a moment when the U.S. ought to be on the side of the rule of law, which the Honduran court and Congress upheld. If Washington does not reverse course, it will be one more act of appeasement toward an ambitious and increasingly dangerous dictator.
Update: A blogger who understands the Communist gameplan in Latin America analyzes the situation in Honduras.
Update 2: A lefty Guate blogger with the Chavez/Zelaya talking points. Notice how the ‘mainstream media’ is described as being supportive of the new government. Anyone seen a single media outlet not supporting Zelaya? In the US we call this straightfaced, total detachment from reality ‘propaganda’.
More on the non-Coup in Honduras
Posted by: | CommentsRegional and international media, Bolshevist bloggers and others continue to characterize the removal of Mel Zelaya from office by the Honduran Supreme Court and Congress as a ‘military coup’. (Last I checked the new President is a civilian elected by the legislature).
I’ve learned people are pretty thin-skinned here if you dissent from the official ‘line’. When I doubted the ‘analysis’ of the allegations against Colom, I got death threats. When I questioned the prudence of the Guatemalan who called for a run on the state bank, I was called a coward. Now that I’ve observed the democratically elected representatives removing a protege of Chavez and Castro for repeatedly defying the ruling of the Supreme Court, friends resort to calling me a liar.
If you’re interested in a true analysis of the situation by intellectuals, check out this blog. It’s one of my favorite Guatemalan blogs and has an emphasis on economic matters. I’ve discovered you can learn a lot about a blog by reading the comments, and this guy attracts some bright people. Carlos brings up some great questions, including the ease with which so many constitutions in the region are amended, which tends to attract dictators and demagogues to the executive branch who believe they can twist the constitution by scaring the masses into constitutional referendums (a la Hugo Chavez).
Another balanced analysis of the situation is here. This blogger quotes extensively from foreign governments and international organizations condemning the move and calling for Zelaya to be restored to power. I find it hard to believe Hondurans would give a damn what some foreign power or multi-national political organization thinks about the internal workings of their country. I know what I would think if the UN had tried to get involved with the Bush-Gore debacle in 2000.
Of course, the truth of this is that the guy who got booted was a leftist, which explains the outrage of the media and the international community. Naturally no President in Latin America is going to condone a Chief Executive’s removal, for fear of their own job security, so between the two groups you have what appears to be unanimous international opinion against the people of Honduras. Of course, Obama and Hillary have criticized the developments, which ought to tell you on which side of the discussion thinking people ought to be.
I’m sure there will be more to come…












