Despite sea surface temperatures only in the low to mid-80s, we have seen that upper level wind shear and other factors are producing conditions that are very conducive to cyclone formation.

Right now in the Eastern Pacific we have Category 5 Hurricane Celia located southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California. Celia is moving west so is not a threat to land. Right behind Celia and following roughly the same track is Category 2 Hurricane Darby, located about 400 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, also moving west. Darby is bringing rain to southwestern Mexico but is not a serious threat to land.

Directly off the Pacific coast of Guatemala and El Salvador is an area of low pressure and strong disorganized thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. This system poses an increased rain threat to Guatemala as it is moving very slowly west northwest at only 10 miles per hour. Conred has issued an Orange Alert regarding this system.

I’m ready for the dry season…

The callejon in front of my house is flooded, the drain on the edges of the street in front of the residenciales is full of trash and after the third use my umbrella of mercado origin now looks more like a bicycle wheel with a handle.  A well-to-do businessman I know here commented, “I usually leave town for my island this time of year”.  I’m starting to wonder if I shouldn’t become a Rain Bird myself and head to the Yucatan in June each year.

Oh, and top o’ the mornin’ to ya.

This morning is a perfect example; it was a little cool (60ish, nothing to justify the parkas the locals are wearing!), but accompanied by tons of sun.  So much sun in fact, that the 10 minutes I spent on the terrace with my coffee and my imaginary WSJ might have led to a slight sunburn.

This is Holy Week after all, and we all have our crosses to bear.

Today I was out on some business and Santiago’s pants looked a little tight.  Then I saw his long underwear peaking out from under his pant cuff.  That should give you some idea of just how chilly it can be with the wind blowing.

Moral of the story:  When you visit or move here, don’t leave all your warm clothes in the states, because you’re going to need them here occasionally.

It has been raining all day. Gray, drizzly rain. This comes after a week of afternoon and evening rainstorms.

What makes it worse is that this is NOT the right season for rain. The rains should have ended a week ago at the latest.

And even worse: During the proper rainy season, there was very little rain, which means most of this agricultural country experienced a horrible drought and is in the midst of a food crisis. (Crisis as in people in rural areas are starving or living on international food aid.) And the late-season rains don’t help the farmers; they just make harvesting whatever’s there  more difficult.

I think it has rained every day for a week.  And it’s raining at night, in the morning, in the afternoon, just about any time.  It’s cold too, we’re talking a bone-chilling 55F kind of cold.  Even I have been reduced to long sleeves and the occasional jacket.  I think I’m finally going to pickup some firewood.

I’m confused, because it never really rained like this during the ‘rainy’ season, and it’s supposed to be over now.  I guess it’s El Nino/La Nina/Global Warming/Global Cooling.

Related:  Sometimes when it’s cold and you want a nice warming drink, Amaretto is hard to beat.  However, DiSaronno is extremely expensive here and the copycats leave a lot to desire.  Well, last time I was at HiperPaiz I came across a brand I’d never tried before.  It’s called Luxardo and is only 120Q for a 750ml bottle and is quite good.  Mix it in with your morning coffee for a nice treat.

It’s 63F now, overcast and I’m still bundled up and freezing.  Have I gone native all of a sudden?  Will I be wearing a hat and sweaters everywhere from now on, like my other long-time expat friends?

Of course, there is the chance that the combination of Cipro and drying out is causing my body to shut down in advance of death.  Wouldn’t that make some people happy?

With many parts of the country reporting no rain since May, Guatemala is facing a food crisis. Several of our projects are in communities that are hardest hit by this. Many important crops have been lost by the drought and people who were struggling to survive are now left without sufficient food to feed their families.

For example, the last few days have been hot and humid.  If you’ve got a breeze, it’s pleasant, but if you’re inside or otherwise sheltered from the wind it’s warm.  The crazy thing is that at night it feels almost cold.  It’s definitely long sleeve or light jacket kind of weather (for gringos); for locals it’s full-on winter parka temperatures.

I know almost nothing about meteorology (one of my few weak spots), but I thought that high temperatures by day and low temperatures at night are usually caused by cloudless skies; apparently clouds both reflect heat from the sun and keep it in, so not having them gives you the daily swings.  However, we have clouds a good deal of the time.

Any of you that are more scientifically oriented, feel free to opine, unless you’re going to tell me it’s all a symptom of Man Made Global Warming, caused by evil profit-seeking US corporations.  In that case direct your browser to LaCuadra Online, the online version of Antigua’s far-left expat community.

For starters, it’s been overcast and humid.  Not humid as in Houston, but substantially more than what we’ve been accustomed to here in the last 9 months.  So much so that, for the first time since moving here, I had to take a shower in the late afternoon just to cool off and get rid of that sticky feeling.  Yeah, I’m a wimp, I admit it, but we AZ boys think anything over 10% is high humidity!

Truth be told, if you’re out and about around town, it’s not that bad.  A little breeze makes all the difference, but if you’re just sitting at a bar your desk working, it is stifling.  The flip side is that at night it gets almost cold; for me that means a long sleeve shirt, but for locals and expats who’ve gone native, it means a parka or a fleece jacket and maybe a scarf to brave temps that have plummeted to the high 50s.

It’s now been raining for almost 24 hours straight, which is a good thing because things are starting to look dry around town.  Prices have also gone up on fruits vegetables; I don’t know whether that’s the result of the relative dryness, a cyclical thing, my normal vendors sticking it to me or just the bizarre economics that exist in this bubble.  (Fortunately, prices on basics like beer, wine and cigars remain steady.)

As I’ve commented about the relative dryness of this rainy season, long-time expats have said, in so many words, “Just wait ’till September”.  Apparently Antigua in September is like Seattle.  We’ll know soon enough.

Update:  It’s Raining on Charlotte